ArpexCapital

Dream, People, Culture

Is God Brazilian?

Brazilians have an old tongue-in-cheek saying that “God is Brazilian”, a notion recently supported by Lula in referring to massive oil discoveries off of Brazil’s coast.

Further evidence of a Brazilian deity may come on Friday. That’s the day the International Olympic Committee will vote on which city will host the 2016 Summer Olympics. Rio de Janeiro is currently the slight favorite over Chicago, followed by long-shots Madrid and Tokyo. (Chicago received a boost about an hour ago, however, when President Obama announced that he will go to Copenhagen to lobby for his hometown of Chicago.)

Brazil has is already hosting the 2014 World Cup., has moved ahead in the world economic order by being one of the the last to enter and first to exit the world recession, is discovering more oil by the week (see Lula, above) and has a host of other macro-economic advantages , a fact that more and more experts are trumpeting .

An Olympic victory would pile on the good news, bringing an ocean of free publicity, as well as additional infrastructure and foreign investment.

Among other effects, I believe that a Rio Olympics in 2016 would mark the end of Brazil as a “developing” nation and position it as a “first-world” leader in global consciousness.

One vexing question remains, however: if God is Brazilian, is he Carioca or Paulista? ;)

September 28, 2009 at 14:16 Comments (5)

Carlyle Group in Brazil and Why

The Latin America Venture Capital Association Conference provided fresh evidence of the momentum for PE/VC in Brazil. My next post will cover the interesting take-aways but for now, see the article below on David Rubenstein’s keynote address. He explains why Carlyle is getting into Brazil and why, in his words, “Brazil is the best place in the world for private equity right now.”

It was heartening to see him reiterate what many of us ‘Brazil Bulls’ have been saying for some time.

Carlyle in Brazil – 10 reasons to invest

efinancialnews
Cardiff de Alejo Garcia
23 Sep 2009
The co-founder of US private equity giant Carlyle Group has said his firm is planning a “major push” into Brazil, outlining a 10-point list of why the country’s burgeoning economy presents a more attractive opportunity than the other large emerging markets.
David Rubenstein told a conference of Latin America private
equity professionals in New York yesterday that Brazil’s
increased openness to the asset class, its macroeconomic
stability and less competition from other large foreign buyout
firms, were strong reasons to invest in the country.
Speaking at the annual Latin America Venture Capital
Association Summit, Rubenstein first gave reasons to be
pessimistic about investing in the US, even as it exits
recession, including the possibility of large long-term deficits, a
weaker dollar and rising taxes.
He expressed his belief that China is now the most attractive
place in the world to invest, largely because of its size, but that
its market for private equity had become crowded. He said:
“When I travel to China, I see as many private equity managers
walking through Beijing hotels as I do in New York.”
Rubenstein said that foreign private equity managers have been slower to embrace Brazil, though he expects that will soon change as the country has “turned out to be an extremely attractive place to invest, and has a number of attributes that even India and China don’t have”.
He then listed 10 points that make the country a compelling opportunity for private equity firms.
1- A sizable and growing domestic market
2- Room for credit expansion for both households and companies
3- Lower dependence on foreign trade, with the domestic market accounting for 60% of gross domestic product
4- Diversified export markets
5- A recent history of political and economic stability
6- Fiscal discipline
7- High foreign exchange reserves
8- Proactive and effective government intervention
9- A well-capitalised financial system
10- Massive amounts of natural resources

Rubenstein declined to give specifics about Carlyle’s activities in Brazil, citing regulatory issues but said that the firm’s team of seven employees in Sao Paolo, headed by Fernando Borges, was now performing due diligence on potential deals and would make “a major push in the next few years”.
He said: “I am hoping that our competitors in the global private equity markets won’t notice and start rushing to invest there. But I suspect that in next year you’ll start seeing all kinds of stories about other private equity managers engaging Brazil.”

Aside from local investors, Rubenstein said that much of the money for funds that invest in Brazil will come from the Middle East, Europe and Asia rather than from North America. Pension schemes in other Latin American countries such as Peru and Colombia – where restrictions on the maximum amount pension administrators can invest in private equity have eased in recent years – are also expected to contribute.
Private equity firms have been in investing in Brazil since the mid-1990s, though the asset class only began to really take off there in recent years.

There is now $27bn (€18bn) in capital committed to private equity funds in Brazil, with $11.5bn already invested, according to statistics provided by Luiz Figueiredo, chairman of the Brazilian Private Equity and Venture Capital Association.

There have been 300 new private equity investments since 2004, and more than 40 initial public offerings for Brazilian private equity-backed companies.

September 24, 2009 at 11:39 Comments (0)

Brazil Emerges from Recession in Second Quarter

Looks like Brazil was indeed “last in, first out” of the recession. Good news…

By Alan Clendenning, AP Business Writer
On Friday September 11, 2009, 8:56 am EDT

SAO PAULO (AP) — Brazil emerged from recession in the second quarter as strong domestic consumption helped the economy grow despite the global financial meltdown, the government said Friday.

Latin America’s largest economy expanded 1.9 percent from April to June compared to the first quarter, following two consecutive quarters of declines.

The positive result came after the government lavished tax breaks on individuals and businesses with an economic stimulus package.

The administration of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva also poured money into public works projects to counter the global slowdown and slashed taxes on new car purchases, prompting an extended buying spree.

The second-quarter growth figure was at the high end of expectations from analysts surveyed by the private Agencia Estado news agency.

Analysts have predicted Brazil will have overall flat or negative growth for all of 2009, but that the economy will bounce register strong gains next year.

Brazil’s government predicts the economy will expand more than 4 percent next year.

In a report Thursday, the government said Brazilian inflation slowed in August and now stands at 4.4 percent for the past 12 months. The rate is below the Central Bank’s 2009 inflation target of 4.5 percent.

September 11, 2009 at 09:59 Comments (0)

Overnight Success

I’ve heard a lot of successful people comment to the effect of ‘My overnight success took 20 years’. In other words, what we commonly take for a quick rise to the top actually took years of struggle.

The chart below from the blog of Paul Kedrosky drives home that point. Many companies that I thought of as rapid successes took many years, sometime two decades, to reach $50 million USD in revenue.

Some that stood out for me: RedHat took nine years, as did MicroStrategy; Wind River Systems — a star when I was in investment banking in the late 1990s — took 14 years; Deltek needed 15 years. Other notables: Oracle needed ten years to get to $50mm and Microsoft needed eight.

Obviously, the more recently a company was founded, the more rapid their ascent to $50mm in revenue — the market for software etc. has grown larger and more rapidly as the years have past. Inflation also counts: relatively speaking, $50mm twenty years ago was a lot bigger number to hit than $50mm today.

The fact that even the very best companies take at least five years to get to $50mm – most take a lot longer – has implications for venture capital. The typical life of a VC fund is ten years – there just aren’t that many companies that will achieve the size required for a large exit during that time period. Regardless, if all of your exits take longer than five years, you are going to have big trouble raising your next fund (fund-raising tends to start well before year five).

I spoke with a GP at an excellent mid-Atlantic firm yesterday who told me that, for US VCs, the average time to exit for portfolio companies has now risen to eight-plus years. Meaning that, IF there is an exit at all, it is taking more than eight years after initial investment to get there.

Tough times in the US VC market.

IPO Growth Dashboard

IPO Growth Dashboard

September 2, 2009 at 10:42 Comments (0)